Trend Analysis- Electric Power

What trends affect your business?  As a sample, we provide a brief presentation on electric power price trends.

Chart 1 (above) shows the Producer Price Index for electric power for the period of 1991 through 2001.  It should be quite evident that there are regular cycles to in this category, typically rising in the spring and peaking during summer and fall months.  The general trend for this price index is up with a recent sharper rise commencing in Q1, 2000.  According to historical data, if your electric bill was (on average) $108 per month, by 2001, your average monthly bill would be $115. 

Chart 2 provides a longer term perspective on the price index for electric power.  Economists predict a nominal inflation rate of 0.8% in 2002 and 3.8% thereafter. The inflation line is included for comparative purposes.  According to the linear trend, if your average monthly electric bill for 2002 is $116 per month, it is likely that you will be paying $121 by the end of 2008.

Chart 3 provides a perspective on the 12-month percent changes in the PPI for electric power. Anytime the line is above 0.00%, it means that prices are rising, and any time the line is below 0.00%, it means that prices are falling.  Between July 1995 and July 1999, it is evident that price momentum was downward.  Since January 1999, this index has moved up and is showing up in upward price momentum.  The polynomial trend line suggests that prices could move up much faster than the linear trend.  Data source: BLIS.  Description of price trends Copyright MIRA Consulting.

Statistics: Within the data set for the 12-month percent change index, the standard deviation is 2.12%, mean is 1.14%, median is 0.90%, and mode is 2.3%.   

Click here for the most recent electric prices $/MHh, see the link below

MIRA Consulting is prepared to help you identify, assess, and identify market trends that can positively or negatively impact the future of your firm.  It pays to look ahead.

We will work with you to develop a proactive means of identifying and responding to a dynamic marketplace. Our process utilizes specific cognitive and statistical methods to achieve the best results.

In past assignments, we have identified business indicators that show a high correlation contributing to more accurate forecasting and scheduling.

Call MIRA Consulting today. Let us help you reduce your uncertainty factor. We will go to work to uncover important trends that affect you today and tomorrow.   Call today for a free initial consultation.

Key Benefits

• Identify trends and warning signs
• Determine where the industry is going
• Capitalize on new opportunities in the near horizon
• Eliminate uncertainty
• Identify the most important indicators for your firm
• Learn how to effectively respond to your event horizon

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